Three new reports point the same way: the things companies need to build, from workers to powered land to skilled trades, are getting harder to find even as national hiring slows.
In the central U.S., industrial employers are still struggling to staff new capacity. In Phoenix, investors are paying up for sites that already have power and entitlements. And nationally, construction remains one of the few sectors still hiring at a healthy clip, helped by data-center projects.
1. Cushman & Wakefield puts industrial sites and local labor on the same map
Cushman & Wakefield | Central Region Industrial Labor Report | Sept. 22
Cushman & Wakefield's latest regional report pairs industrial real estate data with labor data for 17 metro areas across the central U.S., from Chicago and Detroit to Dallas and Houston.
The approach reflects a shift in how sites get evaluated. Communities used to pitch available buildings, highway access and ready land separately from their workforce. Companies increasingly weigh them together.
The report covers warehouse and manufacturing labor alongside industrial space conditions in a region that is absorbing new factory investment while competing for the same technicians, production workers and logistics staff.
Why it matters: A low-cost building has little value if an employer can't staff it.
For economic developers, the headcount within a 30-mile radius is only a starting point. Site selectors also want to know what those workers do now, which related occupations can be retrained for incoming jobs, which employers already compete for them and how fast wages rise when another large employer arrives.
THE NUMBER TO WATCH: 2.8%, the projected five-year population growth for the report's 17 Central Region metros, home to 57.1 million people. The national rate is 2.1%. Faster growth helps, but it doesn't ensure the right workers live near the right site.
Read the research: Cushman & Wakefield, Central Region Industrial Labor Report.
2. In Phoenix, investors pay a premium for power-ready land
Colliers | Phoenix Capital Chases What's Scarce | Sept. 24
In metro Phoenix, capital is flowing to land that is ready to build on, not land that is merely available.
Colliers' latest Greater Phoenix report finds investors concentrating on assets with advantages that are getting scarce: land with power, industrial capacity, entitlements and steady income.
In one deal, GI Partners paid about $2.71 million an acre for a 5.43-acre data-center site south of downtown Phoenix, roughly 4.7 times what the seller paid in 2012.
At the same time, cities around the region are scrutinizing energy-intensive projects more closely, which adds value to sites that already have approvals and power.
Why it matters: Acreage alone no longer sets a site's value.
A parcel with power, entitlements and a credible development timeline can trade in a different market from one a few miles away that lacks them. The gap is widest for data centers and advanced manufacturing, where years of infrastructure delays can wipe out any savings on land.
For economic development groups and landowners, that argues for site inventories that spell out what a property can support and when, not just how many acres it has.
THE NUMBER TO WATCH: $2.71 million an acre, paid for a power-oriented Phoenix data-center site.
Read the analysis: Colliers, Phoenix Capital Chases What's Scarce.
3. Hiring is slowing, but skilled trades are still scarce
KPMG | September Employment Primer | Sept. 24
KPMG forecasts U.S. payroll growth of 95,000 in September, down from 162,000 in August, in what it calls a low-hire, low-fire labor market.
The slowdown is uneven. KPMG expects manufacturing to add jobs again, and construction remains a relative bright spot. Employers still report trouble hiring skilled technical and trade workers.
Data-center projects are supporting construction employment even as higher interest rates weigh on the broader economy, according to KPMG, and skilled-trade shortages are still pushing employers to pay premium wages.
That matters for communities that see the national slowdown and expect workforce pressure to ease. Where large capital projects are concentrated, it may not.
Why it matters: A slower national job market doesn't mean workers are easy to find near a project site.
Electricians, technicians, construction trades and specialized manufacturing workers can stay scarce, especially when several megaprojects draw on the same labor pool at once.
Power works the same way: national supply says little about whether capacity is available at a given site.
THE NUMBER TO WATCH: 95,000, KPMG's forecast for September payroll growth, even as skilled trades remain hard to hire.
Read the analysis: KPMG, Payrolls Lose Altitude.
What ties them together
Taken together, the reports suggest site selection is becoming more local.
Labor availability depends less on the national unemployment rate than on whether electricians, technicians, production workers and logistics staff live near a particular site.
Land value depends on power, entitlements, infrastructure and timing as much as on acreage.
A softer national economy won't ease either constraint on its own. The places with an edge are the ones that can tell a company when a site will actually be usable.
Research Round-Up is Location Decision's weekly scan of useful new research for economic developers, site selectors, manufacturers and the people who work around them. See something we should read? Send it to [email protected].